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by Robert J. Shapiro

  • ISBN: 0312352425
  • Category: Politics
  • Author: Robert J. Shapiro
  • Subcategory: Politics & Government
  • Other formats: doc lit mbr rtf
  • Language: English
  • Publisher: St. Martin's Press; 1st Edition edition (April 1, 2008)
  • Pages: 368 pages
  • FB2 size: 1669 kb
  • EPUB size: 1687 kb
  • Rating: 4.6
  • Votes: 623
Download Futurecast: How Superpowers, Populations, and Globalization Will Change the Way You Live and Work fb2

Under Secretary of Commerce and Chairman/Co-founder of Sonecon, looks into the future to tell us what our world will over the next dozen years. • Globalization will continue to shift most heavy manufacturing and millions of high-end service jobs from advanced countries like the US, to China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Romania, Turkey and other developing nations.

Now he brings us this book

Now he brings us this book

How old will people live in 50 years, and with what kinds of medical conditions? . What will change when China is in a position to compete in the Middle East? What will the future version of the Kyoto protocol look like, and what kinds of international relations will be behind it?

How old will people live in 50 years, and with what kinds of medical conditions? What will happen to worldwide medicine if the US can no longer pay as much as it currently does? What do you think the long-term solution to health care is? .

How Superpowers, Populations, and Globalization Will Change the Way You Live and Work. politics, the economy, globalization, and world affairs at large. Praise for Futurecast.

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under secretary of commerce, tells us what our world will look like in the year 2020

under secretary of commerce, tells us what our world will look like in the year 2020. What jobs will there be for you and your children? What will happen to your health care? How safe will you be? The answers will depend, even more than today, on where you live.

In this brief time, he foresees monumental changes caused by three historic new forces- globalization, the aging of societies, and America's role as a sole superpower with no near peer- that will determine the paths of nations and the lives of countless millions. and China will be the world's two indispensable.

What will life be like in America, Europe, Japan or China in the year 2020? As everyone’s lives across the world are become increasingly interconnected by globalization and new technologies quicken the pace of everything, the answer to that question depends on the fate and paths of the world’s major nations. In Futurecast, Robert Shapiro, former U.S. Under Secretary of Commerce and Chairman/Co-founder of Sonecon, looks into the future to tell us what our world will over the next dozen years. Though that time span seems brief, Shapiro foresees monumental changes caused by three historic new forces—globalization, the aging of societies, and the rise of America as a sole superpower with no near peer— will determine the paths of nations and the lives of countless millions. What jobs will there be for you and your children? What will happen to your health care? How safe will you be at home or abroad? Answers to these questions will depend, even more than today, on where you live in the world: • Even as China expands its military and its economy, America will be the world’s sole superpower for at least the next generation, and continue to lead efforts to preserve global security and stability. • The U.S. and China will be the world’s two indispensable economies, dominating the course of globalization. • Globalization will continue to shift most heavy manufacturing and millions of high-end service jobs from advanced countries like the US, to China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Romania, Turkey and other developing nations. • Europe’s major nations and Japan will face the prospect of genuine economic decline and critical problems in their retirement pension systems, moving further towards the periphery of global economic and geopolitical power. • Every major country—the U.S., Europe, Japan, China—will face critical problems with their health care systems, and the entire world will face a crisis over energy and climate change. If one adds the wildcard of possible, catastrophic terrorist attacks to this mix, the period between now and 2020 will be as challenging as any in modern times. Taking these deep global developments into account when planning for the future isa necessity. Robert Shapiro’s clear-eyed Futurecast is the knowledge portfolio you need to prepare for the years to come.
Reviews about Futurecast: How Superpowers, Populations, and Globalization Will Change the Way You Live and Work (6):
Welen
Written in late 2007, this book provided the reader at the time of publishing with predictions that have held up about the US and global economy, oil prices, the Iraq war, terrorism and the current crises in Europe. The author, Robert Shapiro, was an advisor to the Clinton administration, and after 5 years, seemed to have a good peg on the world at 2012. The book, however, goes beyond that, to really look at the major elements that will shape the world through 2020 and beyond.

Focusing on the single superpower, the ascendency of China, and the decline of Europe, especially Russia, Shapiro paints a picture of increasing globalization and technological innovation, offset by challenges in energy policy, environmental challenges, and potential major shift events in geopolitics such as nuclear terrorism, nanotechnology breakthroughs and the population declines in the developing world.

The reader will be challenged to look at the future as one of continuing technological advances with the traditional Western economies based on manufacturing and a robust pension and healthcare system undermined by population declines, economic interdependence and instability in the developing world. The author provides thought provoking insights, though the reading can be dry at times. The track record 5 years after publishing warrants a read for anyone interested in getting an experts view on what's coming over the next 8-10 years.
Xor
Robert Shapiro, former Clinton Administration Under Secretary of Commerce presents his vision of the world in the near future. In his view, there are three important factors that will have an impact on the shape of the new world: globalization, demographics and the superpowers. None of this is surprising and most of the people agree with this view. His presentation is provocative though, and the simple review of facts that occurred in the recent past and their extension into the near future is challenging the mindset that most of us have. The world is fast evolving and we have to adapt.

It is difficult to grasp the massive dislocation brought to us by globalisation when you have countries like China and India entering the world stage changing completely the job market everywhere. In his view America will remain a superpower, but the rules are different. Robert focuses on US, China, Japan and Europe, with occasional touch on Ireland, UK, France, Germany, Italy and South Corea. The book has a lot of factual information and it contains, based on that information, predictions on future trends that are likely to occur until 2020. Suprisingly, there is not much about India, Canada and Australia (the last two countries have massive natural resources that have a key strategic importance in the evolution of global balance of power).

The main factors that Robert predicts will have a significant influence in the evolution of world order are demographic, economic and political. The demographic factors are staggering. For instance China will have by 2020 over 170 million people over 60. Or consider the fact that in Europe and Japan the elderly will represent over 50% of the working-age population. These developments will have impact on productivity, economic growth, social system, tax and welfare in general.

The story of China is interesting. The accelerated development is impressive, but there are huge risks lurking in the background. The eventuation of any of these risks has implications for the rest of the world. Robert Shapiro explains very well the connection between China and US as competitors fighting for leadership and partners sharing common interests.

Of course there are unanswered questions, but who can pretend or demand that they should or could be answered? This is one of those books that make people debate forever, and that is good. The book is a very interesting read.
Yalone
Robert Shapiro was Under-Secretary of Commerce in the Clinton administration from 1998 to 2001, and now leads a consulting firm for US and foreign companies on business issues in general. Now he brings us this book.

"Futurecast: How Superpowers, Populations, and Globalization Will Change The Way You Live and Work" (358 pages) brings the "big picture' of what we can realistically expect in the next 15 years so so. Shapiro focuses on several general themes (geopolitics, globalization of the economy, and the global demographic shift) and the incredible shifts that they will INEVITABLY will bring about. Praise yourself lucky that you are is the US, as Shapiro's outlook for Europe and Japan is bleak at best. Observes Shapiro: "The geopolitical marginalization of Europe seems all but certain. It may be hard to imagine today when much of Europe disdains America's power and its president, but these developments could strengthen the Atlantic alliance." (He goes on to explain in great detail how that would happen.) Shapiro points out there are two wild cards in all scenarios: terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism (which are not the same thing, of course). The effects of the global demographic shifts are devastating, yet certain to happen (Russia is losing about 1 million, yes you read that correctly) people every year) and certain to cause huge political consequences, particularly in Europe and Japan. And on and on...

Be forewarned: this is not a book you'll read in a couple of hours (or even days). This is dense and serious writing. It took me a good two weeks to read the book from start to finish, but it was so worth it. This book for me is as essential as Thomas Friedman's revolutionary "The World Is Flat" book 3 years ago. This book should be required reading for all college students, and frankly our politicians. Are you reading this, Wahsington? Absolutely essential reading.

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