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by Peter Turchin

  • ISBN: 0691090203
  • Category: Other
  • Author: Peter Turchin
  • Subcategory: Science & Mathematics
  • Other formats: lrf mbr docx mobi
  • Language: English
  • Publisher: Princeton University Press (January 1, 2003)
  • Pages: 456 pages
  • FB2 size: 1164 kb
  • EPUB size: 1159 kb
  • Rating: 4.1
  • Votes: 662
Download Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis (MPB-35) (Monographs in Population Biology) fb2

Series: Monographs in Population Biology (Book 35. Thus, it is no surprise that the population doubled somewhere between 35 and 70 years.

Series: Monographs in Population Biology (Book 35). Paperback: 472 pages. Publisher: Princeton University Press (February 2, 2003). Turchin refers to the exponential law of population ecology (Malthus, 1798) as a "good candidate" for "the first principle of population dynamics". Try it for yourself, using any rate between 1% and 2% each year until the population doubles.

Series: Monographs in Population Biology. Complex Population Dynamicsintegrates theoretical and empirical studies into a major new synthesis of current knowledge about population dynamics

Series: Monographs in Population Biology. Published by: Princeton University Press. Complex Population Dynamicsintegrates theoretical and empirical studies into a major new synthesis of current knowledge about population dynamics. It is also a pioneering work that sets the course for ecology's future as a predictive science. eISBN: 978-1-4008-4728-0.

Complex population dynamics have fascinated biologists for decades. Peter Turchin is Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Connecticut. By bringing together mathematical models, statistical analyses, and field experiments, this book offers a comprehensive new synthesis of the theory of population oscillations. Complex Population Dynamics integrates theoretical and empirical studies into a major new synthesis of current knowledge about population dynamics.

Complex Population Dynamics book. Books by Peter Turchin. Monographs in Population Biology (1 - 10 of 59 books).

Complex population dynamics have fascinated biologists for decades Complex Population Dynamics integrates theoretical and empirical.

Princeton (New Jersey): Princeton University Press. Of all published articles, the following were the most read within the past 12 months. Rethinking the Theoretical Foundation of Sociobiology. Wilson et al. A Symbiotic View of Life: We Have Never Been Individuals.

Series: Monographs in Population Biology Volume: 35. By: Peter Turchin. as Mathematical Models 11 . 3 Contrasting Models with Data 14 2. Population Dynamics from First Principles 17 . Introduction 17 . Exponential Growth 19 . 1 Derivation of the Exponential Model 20 . 2 Comparison with the Law of Inertia 22 . 3 "Laws": Postulates, Theorems, Empirical Generalizations?

An interdisciplinary journal, Theoretical Population Biology presents articles on theoretical aspects of the biology of populations, particularly in the areas of demography, ecology, epidemiology, evolution, and genetics.

An interdisciplinary journal, Theoretical Population Biology presents articles on theoretical aspects of the biology of populations, particularly in the areas of demography, ecology, epidemiology, evolution, and genetics. Emphasis is on the development of mathematical theory and models that enhance the understanding of biological phenomena. Articles highlight the motivation and significance of the work for advancing progress in biology, relying on a substantial mathematical effort to obtain biological insight.

Complex Population Dynamics integrates theoretical and empirical studies into a major new synthesis of current knowledge about population dynamics. Series: MPB-35) (Monographs in Population Biology. File: PDF, . 5 MB. Читать онлайн.

Why do organisms become extremely abundant one year and then seem to disappear a few years later? Why do population outbreaks in particular species happen more or less regularly in certain locations, but only irregularly (or never at all) in other locations? Complex population dynamics have fascinated biologists for decades. By bringing together mathematical models, statistical analyses, and field experiments, this book offers a comprehensive new synthesis of the theory of population oscillations.

Peter Turchin first reviews the conceptual tools that ecologists use to investigate population oscillations, introducing population modeling and the statistical analysis of time series data. He then provides an in-depth discussion of several case studies--including the larch budmoth, southern pine beetle, red grouse, voles and lemmings, snowshoe hare, and ungulates--to develop a new analysis of the mechanisms that drive population oscillations in nature. Through such work, the author argues, ecologists can develop general laws of population dynamics that will help turn ecology into a truly quantitative and predictive science.

Complex Population Dynamics integrates theoretical and empirical studies into a major new synthesis of current knowledge about population dynamics. It is also a pioneering work that sets the course for ecology's future as a predictive science.


Reviews about Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Empirical Synthesis (MPB-35) (Monographs in Population Biology) (3):
Dranar
Great book, read it multiple times. Great synthesis of theory and empitical work. Anyone interested in population biology should read it.
mym Ђудęm ęгσ НuK
Politicians often say things like, "Let's not follow each other off a cliff like lemmings," but it's not true that lemmings really follow each other off a cliff in nature. What IS true is that some species of lemmings have huge populations some years, and become almost extinct in other years.
Why does the population of lemmings vary so much? It turns out that it has to do with the interaction of the lemmings with their food supply and their predators. When there are a lot of lemmings, then they eat all the edible vegetation and begin starving, and their predators, like weasels, thrive and kill the lemmings off, so that lemmings almost disappear. With no lemmings around, the food can grow again unmolested, and predators, having nothing to eat, die off themselves. That leaves the field clear for lemmings to thrive, and their populations grow, repeating the cycle every three to five years.
Peter Turchin formalizes all this for a wide variety of animal species -- from the Larch budmouth to the southern pine beetle, from the red grouse to the snowshoe hare. He develops mathematical models for the populations of all these species and tests the models with known data time series.
This landmark book is a must for serious professionals involved in ecology and other biological and natural sciences.
Clandratha
The purpose of Turchin's tome is to answer the question "Does Population Ecology Have "Laws"? (the subject of an earlier paper by him). Turchin wants to claim that population ecology is a "mature science", and uses some largely philosophical arguments to claim similarities to Newton's laws. I was not convinced.

Whilst I think he does an admirable job of explaining the current state of thinking in the field of population ecology, I believe he fails to adequately explain the first principles, leaping from the semi-firm footing of Malthusian population theory to a morass of bits of models that only partially work.

Turchin refers to the exponential law of population ecology (Malthus, 1798) as a "good candidate" for "the first principle of population dynamics". The Malthusian argument is that populations grow exponentially (at a constant rate) when "unchecked" (as Malthus would say) or as long as the "environment... remains constant" (as Turchin puts it).

Of course, this never happens, and there is no evidence presented (by any author) of any population ever having sustained indefinite exponential growth (at a constant rate). All real-world examples of exponential growth turn out to be temporary periods of exponential growth (at a constant rate).

Various other models are considered, but each with caveats and drawbacks. In short, there is - apparently - no simple law of population ecology.

==Re-interpreting Malthus==

Yet Malthus argued that (human) populations double every 25 years (when unchecked), and then explained very carefully that all human populations are checked (by war, famine, pestilence, Death, or "moral restraint")! He even explicitly states that the 25 year doubling period is the "general case" and so the doubling period would sometimes be faster, sometimes slower.

A handy way of explaining the impact of what Malthus said is to use a simple heuristic tool called the Rule of 70, whereby the annual compound interest rate is divided into 70 to get the doubling period (it becomes less accurate for larger interest rates). Thus, 1% annual growth results in doubling every 70 years, and 2% annual growth results in doubling every 35 years. Check the US Census Bureau's website, and you will see that our global population doubled from 3 billion in 1960 to 6 billion in 1999 - a doubling period of 39 years. The compound interest rates during that period were almost entirely in the 1% to 2% range. Thus, it is no surprise that the population doubled somewhere between 35 and 70 years. Try it for yourself, using any rate between 1% and 2% each year until the population doubles.

Thus, variable rate compound interest results in variable doubling periods. An almost identical argument can be made for variable negative compound interest rates of growth, resulting variable population halving times.

Imagine a balancing scale, with all the negative rates on one side, and all the positives on the other. Whenever one side "outweighs" the other by 70, you've got yourself a population doubling or a population halving (depending whether positive rates or negative rate "won", respectively).

The balancing "Scales of 70" is a simple and useful approximation, and a completely accurate model called the "Scales of e" (using Natural Logarithms) is also available.

==Simple Population Dynamics==

This "revised" Malthusian model - barely 1 page long - provides an explanation of a true law of population ecology that anyone can understand. This is a firmer "first principle" than the traditional interpretation of Malthus used by Turchin (and everyone else).

This is basically how all populations of all species grow. Variable rate compound interest. Just 4 words.

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