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by David F. Hendry,Carl-Johann Dalgaard,Michael P. Clements

  • ISBN: 0262531895
  • Category: Math & Science
  • Author: David F. Hendry,Carl-Johann Dalgaard,Michael P. Clements
  • Subcategory: Mathematics
  • Other formats: lit lrf mobi lrf
  • Language: English
  • Publisher: The MIT Press; Reprint edition (March 1, 2001)
  • Pages: 314 pages
  • FB2 size: 1477 kb
  • EPUB size: 1527 kb
  • Rating: 4.9
  • Votes: 153
Download Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series (Zeuthen Lectures) fb2

This is an important and provocative contribution to the theory and methodology of economic forecasting.

ISBN-13: 978-0262531894. This is an important and provocative contribution to the theory and methodology of economic forecasting. It will be essential reading for anyone with a serious professional interest in the field. Paul Newbold, Professor of Econometrics, University of Nottingha. Series: Zeuthen Lectures.

Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series. Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry 1999.

The choice of topics will range from abstract theorizing to economic history. Regardless of the topic, the emphasis in the lecture series will be on originality and relevance. Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series.

In their second book on economic forecasting, Michael Clements and David Hendry ask why some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of. . Clements, David F. Hendry.

In their second book on economic forecasting, Michael Clements and David Hendry ask why some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of formal support from theory.

Автор: Clements, Michael Hendry, David F. Название: Forecasting economic time series ISBN .

Описание: An extended formal analysis of economic forecasting co-authored by one of the world s leading econometricians. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables.

In their second book on economic forecasting, Michael P. Hendry ask why some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of formal support from theory. They show that forecast-period shifts in deterministic factors-interacting with model misspecification, collinearity, and inconsistent estimation-are the dominant source of systematic failure.

We consider time series forecasting in the presence of ongoing structural change where both the time series dependence and the nature of the . It extends the work of Clements and Hendry (1993) by using that of Abadir et al.

We consider time series forecasting in the presence of ongoing structural change where both the time series dependence and the nature of the structural change are unknown. Methods that downweight older data, such as rolling regressions, forecast averaging over different windows and exponentially weighted moving averages, known to be robust to historical structural change, are found to be also useful in the presence of ongoing structural change in the forecast period.

Are you sure you want to remove Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series (Zeuthen Lectures) from your list? Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series (Zeuthen Lectures). by Michael P. Published March 1, 2001 by The MIT Press.

Forecasting economic time series This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice

Forecasting economic time series This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. Clements and Hendry base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a nonconstant, evolving economic system, whose form and structure is unknown a priori. Clements and Hendry find that conclusions which can be established for constantparameter stationary processes and correctly specified models do not hold when these unrealistic assumptions are relaxed

Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series. ISBN13: 9780262531894. More Books . ABOUT CHEGG.

Michael P. Clements, and David F. Forecasting macroeconomic time series is notoriously difficult

Michael P. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1999. Forecasting macroeconomic time series is notoriously difficult. Previously unannounced changes in policy, natural and man-made disasters, institutional changes, new discoveries, new data definitions and revisions among others cause occasional large forecast errors in the standard constant-parameter models.

In their second book on economic forecasting, Michael Clements and David Hendry ask why some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of formal support from theory. After reviewing the conventional approach to economic forecasting, they look at the implications for causal modeling, present a taxonomy of forecast errors, and delineate the sources of forecast failure. They show that forecast-period shifts in deterministic factors―interacting with model misspecification, collinearity, and inconsistent estimation―are the dominant source of systematic failure. They then consider various approaches for avoiding systematic forecasting errors, including intercept corrections, differencing, co-breaking, and modeling regime shifts; they emphasize the distinction between equilibrium correction (based on cointegration) and error correction (automatically offsetting past errors). Their results on forecasting have wider implications for the conduct of empirical econometric research, model formulation, the testing of economic hypotheses, and model-based policy analyses.



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